Bitcoin Price Analysis
The Bitcoin market has slipped by a total of -0.6% over the previous 24 hours of trading, bringing the current trading price down to around $4001 on BitFinex, at the time of writing. Bitcoin is trading under $4000 on the rest of the other large exchanges.
The market is still up by a total of 9.25% over the previous 7 trading days. However, price action has reached a bearish .618 Fibonacci Retracement level from the November 2018 price decline which may be an indicator that price action is ready to resume its previous bearish trend.
What is the current market cap of Bitcoin?
The current market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $69.61 billion as the cryptocurrency continues to try and break above the $70 billion handle. The 70 month old cryptocurrency godfather now trades at a value that is 79% lower than its all time high price.
BTC/USD – 4HR CHART – MEDIUM TERM
What has happened since our last analysis?
Since our last Bitcoin price analysis, we can see that Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways along the bearish .618 Fibonacci Retracement level (drawn in red) priced at $4001. This is measured from the high seen in November 2018, before the market bloodbath, to the low of December 2018.
The fact that price action is struggling to break above this resistance level may be an indicator that the market is ready to continues it overall long term bearish trend. We won’t be out of the bearish trend until Bitcoin starts to make higher highs. This first of which will be BTC/USD breaking above the January 2019 high above $4218.
What is the current trend?
The current short term trend is presently bullish. However, as mentioned above, the overall long term trend is bearish until price action breaks above the January 2019 high to create a higher high.
Where can we go from here?
It seems that the bulls may now be exhausted and need a short break before they can continue higher. If this is the case and price action starts to fall, we can expect immediate support below to be located at the short term .236 and .382 Fibonacci Retracement levels (drawn in green) priced at $3969 and $3861.
Further support can then be expected at the short term .5 and .618 Fibonacci Retracement levels (drawn in green) priced at $3774 and $3687, respectively.
What if the buyers step back in?
Alternatively, if the buyers continue to drive further higher, we can expect immediate resistance for BTC/USD to be located at the $4055 handle. Further resistance above this can then be located at the short term 1.272 and 1.414 Fibonacci Extension levels (drawn in blue) priced at $4159 and $4218, respectively. The resistance at $4218 is further increased by the bearish .786 Fibonacci Retracement level (drawn in red) priced in the same area.
Higher resistance above $4220 can then be located at the short term 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in blue) priced at $4303.
What are the technical indicators showing?
The RSI indicator on the 4HR chart is still battling with the 50 handle as the market decides which direction to head toward next. A break above the 50 handle will cause price action to continue higher, where as a break below 50 will cause the market to continue further lower into the support highlighted above.
